This article was taken from the Autumn 2024 issue of 1875. To subscribe to our investment publications, please visit
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Burberry, the eminent British luxury clothing brand best known for its iconic trench coats and signature check pattern, has had a deeply challenging year. In August, the company dropped out of the FTSE 100 following a dramatic fall in value. At the time of writing, the share price is down 63% over the last year, with little sign of a rebound in the near-term. However, investors looking to profit from a potential future recovery are eyeing up the opportunity.
Since 21-year-old Thomas Burberry founded the company in Basingstoke in 1856, Burberry has grown into one of the biggest names in fashion, with over 400 stores globally and an array of celebrity brand ambassadors including actors Barry Keoghan and Olivia Coleman. The product range now spans clothing, outerwear, bags, shoes, accessories, and fragrance, with the signature trench coat selling for around £2,000. Angela Ahrendts, CEO from 2006 to 2014, is widely credited with reviving the brand and grew the company value from £2bn to £7bn over her tenure. However, since her departure Burberry has struggled to position its brand in the competitive luxury space, causing investor returns to stagnate over the period.
Burberry has increasingly attempted to reposition itself as a high-end luxury brand targeting wealthy consumers, moving away from its core market of the mass affluent segment. The company pushed prices up across product lines and focussed on trying to get a foothold in the high-margin accessory market, especially handbags and leather goods. However, this strategic shift ended up being slow, costly, and ineffective. Burberry’s foundation as a high-quality, British clothing designer known for outerwear fit poorly with the move. The leather goods market is especially competitive with strong, established players and Burberry lacked brand power in the space.
Aside from self-inflicted pain caused by the ongoing repositioning, Burberry has faced strong external headwinds over the past few years. The luxury sector has struggled as post Covid spending tailed off and consumers globally were hit with rising inflation. As the aspirational consumer felt the cost-of-living pinch, spending on luxuries slowed down. This was especially the case in China, where demand has slowed rapidly in recent years amid weakening consumer sentiment and Western brands struggling to remain relevant.
The combination of a costly and drawn-out turnaround and a worsening market environment was highly damaging for Burberry, and in the 12 months to March 2024 the company reported earnings per share had fallen 41%. The share price tumbled in response, despite a total of £633m of cash returned to shareholders over the course of the year through share buybacks and dividends, representing a pay-out ratio of 83%. While the March results were cautiously optimistic for a recovery through 2024, the situation continued to deteriorate. The group released an unscheduled trading update in June, warning it expected revenues to decline a further 30% across the financial year and announcing that dividends would be suspended until operations stabilised. As a final blow, CEO Jonathan Akeroyd was ousted and replaced with Joshua Schulman, former CEO of Coach and Jimmy Choo.
A new CEO could mark the start of a recovery, bringing in a fresh perspective and strategy to the company. Schulman faces the complicated task of stabilising the brand, clarifying the company direction, and reassuring investors. The good news is that he has experience with this sort of recovery, having managed a similar feat at Coach through reigning in discounting while pushing the brand towards a more expressive, culturally relevant image. However, Coach markets its products towards less affluent shoppers, possibly pointing towards a similar direction for Burberry. The new CEO’s vision will hopefully become clearer following his formal start in November.
So far, the future of Burberry’s brand positioning remains uncertain. Chair Gerry Murphy emphasised that the goal was to tweak the strategy as opposed to completely change direction. He reiterated that Burberry should be seen as a ‘true luxury’ brand which could appeal to the wealthiest consumers. At the same time, he acknowledged that it had moved too fast in a challenging environment and needed to reconnect with its core consumer. While guidance was vague, it seems the company hopes to balance its offering across price points to appeal to multiple groups simultaneously. Burberry may require a more decisive strategy to stabilise its image. Significant damage has already been done - an annual ranking of brand value by market research company Kantar saw Burberry lose nearly US$2bn in brand value compared with 2023. Of the UK’s 75 most valuable brands, Burberry’s fall was second only to troubled financial advisor St James’s Place. However, the current share price reflects significant negative sentiment, which may limit further decline. An investor willing to go against the majority view could see opportunity, with potential for either an internal shake-up led by a new CEO or an improving external environment of increasing demand for luxury goods. In the meantime, Burberry must reconnect consumers with its strong British heritage and reputation for high-quality innovative products.
Please note that this communication is for information only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the shares of the investments mentioned. Investments and income arising from them can fall as well as rise in value. Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results and performance. The information and views were correct at time of writing but may have changed at point of reading.